The Providence Journal / Frank Gerardi

The hottest topic in the tourism business is what impact record-high gasoline prices will have on the business.

Will people decide to cut back their vacations this summer? Will Rhode Island benefit from people who choose to stay close to home, rather than spend their money elsewhere?

Tourism officials aren’t quite sure what the answers are to these questions, and they are coming up with promotions they hope will keep visitors coming to the state.

“We really are going into uncharted territory with the prediction of continued increases in gas prices,” said David DePetrillo, director of tourism for the Rhode Island Economic Development Corporation.

Gas prices have spiked before, but the latest increases that have pushed gasoline to nearly $3.60 a gallon are unprecedented. How vacationers will react is unclear, DePetrillo said.

“It spells concern, there’s no question about it,” said Robert Billington, president of the Blackstone Valley Tourism Council.

“I’m sure we’re going to lose a few people that will probably think extra hard about making the extra trek if they are a ways away.”

“We’re very cautious about the next 9 to 12 months, not just for gas prices, but the economy is just something that people don’t understand,” said Trudy Coxe, chief executive officer of the Preservation Society of Newport County.

Gasoline has never been this expensive. Yesterday, the average price in Rhode Island was $3.599 a gallon, up 11 cents from last week, according to a survey of local dealers by the state’s Office of Energy Resources.

Last week, the average price set a 27-year record when it surpassed the inflation-adjusted price of $3.413 a gallon, the average price of regular grade fuel in March 1981, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical branch of the U.S. Department of Energy. (The actual average price was $1.417 a gallon, and the EIA converted this to April 2008 dollars.)

Tourism is one of the most important industries to the Rhode Island economy. It brings in annual revenues of more than $4 billion, and employs 55,000 to 60,000 workers, according to the state’s Department of Labor and Training.

The vast majority of tourists in Rhode Island come from nearby states, according to the EDC’s DePetrillo. Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey are “by far” the largest source of overnight and day visitors, he said.

DePetrillo and other tourism officials said that Rhode Island’s proximity to so many people is an advantage in an era of high gasoline prices.

“We have 50 million people within a half-day’s drive from Rhode Island,” he said.

One thing that the tourism officials are hoping will continue is the attitude among Americans about their vacations.

“Travel is not a privilege,” said Billington, of the Blackstone Valley Tourism Council. “People think of travel as a right.”

People look forward to their vacations all year and are very reluctant to cut them out, said DePetrillo.

“Of all of the research done on vacation habits,” he said, “one of the last things people will do is cut their vacation out. I’ve seen this over and over again.”

“What they will do is change where they’re going to go, how far, how they divide up or allocate money for that vacation,” DePetrillo said. Some people will break up into smaller vacations and stay closer to home.

“In that regard, Rhode Island has an advantage in that we’ve got a lot of different things for people to do on a vacation: outdoor activities, beaches, sailing, kayaking, hiking, cultural attractions, mansions, museums, galleries. Being able to get to all of those things without having to fill up at the pump as often, I think, is an advantage,” he said.

AAA of Southern New England did a survey about a month ago, asking people about their travel plans this vacation season.

Of those surveyed, 58 percent said they were looking to book a less-expensive vacation this year, compared with last year, said John Paul, a spokesman for the auto club.

About 9 percent said they were looking to vacation closer to home, but 33 percent said their plans would not be affected by higher gas prices or a sluggish economy, Paul said.

It’s too early to tell if Rhode Islanders will spend more time camping in their home state, officials said.

Steven T. Wright, superintendent of state parks for the Department of Environmental Management, said that the state in November instituted a new online reservation system for the five state-owned campgrounds. There are no numbers to compare the current bookings to because the state didn’t take reservations for four of the five campgrounds, he said.

“It would be hard to gauge till summer,” Wright said, adding that figures for the percentage of all campsites already sold were not readily available.

The anxiety about high gas prices has prompted some tourist attractions to come up with discount promotions to draw tourists. In previous years, the Preservation Society of Newport County offered a $5 discount to a five-house mansion tour for visitors who presented a gas receipt. The tickets normally cost $36.

Coxe, the president, said the society won’t repeat that promotion this year, but will probably offer a different one. “We do have a couple projects in the works,” she said.

Billington said the Blackstone Valley Tourism Council is likely to repeat a previous campaign in which it put a coupon on its Web site that provided a discount for a group or family of four buying admission tickets for various attractions.

“If it costs you $5 more in gas, you’ll save $10 on admissions,” he said.

The council just released a new visitor guide that shows ways to experience Blackstone Valley without a car. It includes walking on the bike path, visiting a transportation museum along the way. Other suggestions include kayaking or canoeing the Blackstone River.

tbarmann@projo.com