Lebanon Succar, manager of Brothers Gas in East Providence, pumps gas for a customer at his family’s station. His father, Mansour Succar, the owner, said his cost for gas increased by 10 cents on Friday and 4 centsyesterday but, "I kept my prices."

The Providence Journal / Andrew Dickerman

For the first time since November, the average price of gasoline in Rhode Island has dipped below $3 a gallon. But the reprieve may be temporary with oil prices rising the past few days and the annual spring run-up just around the corner.

The average price of regular, self-serve gasoline was $2.999 a gallon yesterday, down 4 cents from last week, according to a survey of local dealers by the state’s Office of Energy Resources.

The average price has fallen 16 cents from its most recent peak of $3.159 a gallon on Jan. 7.

Home-heating oil rose 2 cents a gallon to $3.329 a gallon, according to the Office of Energy Resources, 10 cents below the all-time high of $3.429 a gallon, also on Jan. 7.

The price of gasoline and heating oil are closely tied to the cost of crude oil, the major component of both fuels. Yesterday, crude oil for March delivery rose $1.80, or 2 percent, to $93.57 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Bloomberg news reported. It was the third consecutive day in which futures rose.

Yesterday’s increase was blamed, in part, on comments made by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who threatened to halt oil exports to the United States after Exxon Mobil Corp. took action to freeze $12 billion of oil assets, Bloomberg said.

“Listen to me, Mr. Bush, Mr. Danger,” Chavez was quoted as saying during his weekly television show on Sunday.

“If the economic war continues against Venezuela, the price of oil will reach $200. Venezuela will take up the economic war and more than one country is inclined to join us,” he said.

The dispute with Exxon Mobil stems from Chavez’s efforts last year to nationalize the petroleum assets of foreign-based oil companies. Exxon is fighting the takeover, and last week, the company won court orders in U.S., British and Dutch courts that freeze up to $12 billion in petroleum assets controlled by Venezuela’s government.

Venezuela is the fourth-largest source of oil imported into the United States, after Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. An average of 1.22 million barrels of crude oil a day are imported from Venezuela, representing about 12.3 percent of all imported crude, according to the Energy Department.

One analyst downplayed the potential impact of a decision by Venezuela to stop selling oil to the United States.

“This would not be the worst embargo that one could imagine,” James Williams, an analyst with WTRG Economics, an Arkansas-based energy consulting firm, said in a newsletter yesterday.

“It would probably not affect total world supply of crude since Venezuela would have to sell it to someone else to survive. The countries purchasing the Venezuelan oil would just be replacing oil of similar low quality from some other exporter. That exporter could then supply crude to the U.S.”

Besides potential supply disruption, gasoline prices may be pushed higher as refiners make their annual switch from making winter gasoline to summer grades.

In 2006 and 2007, gasoline prices in Rhode Island began an upward climb in February and March, rising about 40 percent before peaking about the same time on Memorial Day.

Each spring, the refineries clear out their remaining stocks of winter grades in order to make summer gasoline, which is less evaporative. The shift is mandated by state and federal laws that require gasoline stations to sell fuel that is formulated differently, depending on the season. Winter gasoline evaporates more quickly, which makes starting engines easier in cold weather. But in the summer, gasoline is made to evaporate more slowly because the fumes contribute to smog.

The switchover usually begins in February, when refiners begin to draw down their stocks of winter-blend gasoline. That blend usually cannot be delivered to wholesale outlets after May 1, according to the National Association of Convenience Stores, based in Alexandria, Va.

At the same time, some refineries perform their annual maintenance at this time of year, which can lead to a drop in gasoline inventories.

The Energy Information Administration, part of the Department of Energy, said in a report last week that energy prices could be dampened by a slowdown in the national economy.

The impact of such a slowdown “depends on whether households, firms [including oil producers], and economic policy makers anticipate an economic contraction and what actions households, firms and policy makers take in response to this concern,” the report said.

“A recession in the United States most likely would lead to slower growth and lower petroleum consumption abroad as well,” the report said.

tbarmann@projo.com