At the start of the peak-driving season this week, there is some good news about gasoline prices.

The average price of regular, self-serve gasoline in Rhode Island as of yesterday was $2.919 a gallon, down a penny from last week, according to the state’s Office of Energy Resources. The price has dropped a total of 16 cents over the past four weeks.

And the average price is 9 cents lower than it was at this time last year.

But looking further back, gasoline clearly has become awfully expensive. Two years ago, the fuel was a relative bargain at $2.289 a gallon. A trip from Providence to Acadia National Park in Maine will now cost about $101 in gasoline, compared with $79 during the July 4 holiday week in 2005.

Experts say they are not sure which way gasoline prices are headed, as there are conflicting signals that indicate prices could go up or down.

Putting upward pressure on gasoline prices is the lower-than-normal inventory levels. For the week ending June 22, gasoline stocks were 202.6 million barrels, down about 4.6 percent from last year, and 4.8 percent from the five-year average, according to the Energy Information Administration, part of the U.S. Department of Energy.

But oil industry analyst Tom Kloza discounts the importance of those inventory figures. “We’ve operated without a safety net for most of the decade when it comes to peak-driving season,” Kloza wrote on his blog, Speaking of Oil. He suggested that the amount of gasoline on hand may last longer than some analysts predict because the amount of demand may be overstated.

The Energy Information Administration said that the four-week average of gasoline demand was up 1.4 percent over last year.

In any case, Kloza said that gasoline production should rise as more refineries go back online. U.S. refinery utilization rose to 89.4 percent in the week ended June 22, Bloomberg news reported, citing Energy Department data.

The department predicted last month that nationally, regular gasoline would average $3.04 a gallon in the second quarter and $3.05 a gallon in the third quarter. But the department predicts the average price to fall to $2.65 a gallon in the fourth quarter. (The next forecast is due July 10.)

Another big unknown is the upcoming hurricane season, and the potential damage these storms may cause the energy infrastructure around the Gulf of Mexico.

In its May hurricane season outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an active hurricane season again this year with 13 to 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin, including 7 to 10 hurricanes, according to the EIA.

Three to five of those storms are expected to be “intense,” the NOAA outlook said.

“However, the likelihood of a repeat of the destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 is relatively small,” the NOAA said.

Crude oil, a key driver in the price of gasoline, rose 41 cents or 0.6 percent for August delivery, according to Bloomberg. It closed at $71.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since August 25.

Gasoline for August delivery rose about 0.5 cent, or 0.3 percent, to settle at $2.2487 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Bloomberg reported. The news service said that some analysts are predicting an Energy Department report to be released tomorrow to show a rise in U.S. gasoline inventories.

tbarmann@projo.com