Contech Medical, of Providence, has found a niche within the medical-device world. The company’s CEO said he considered moving some operations to China or Mexico, but found that with effective automation, it could remain in Rhode Island.

The Providence Journal / Bob Thayer

Manufacturing jobs have been among the hardest hit during Rhode Island’s recession.

The state has lost more than 9,000 jobs in the sector since the downturn began in 2007. That has left 42,100 jobs here, less than half the number in 1990.

For the laid-off workers who once earned a paycheck in the machine shops and on the factory floors, the question is will the jobs come back when the economy recovers.

Economists are not hopeful. They said many of the lost Rhode Island jobs have gone to China or other developing countries in Asia, while others have disappeared because new technology allows manufacturers to produce more with fewer employees. They project little, if any, post-recession growth in manufacturing.

But state officials, and some manufacturing executives here, are more optimistic. They say manufacturing-job growth is possible if Rhode Island focuses on developing bioscience, defense and green-energy industries.

“Specialized, high-tech, niche industries are the ones that can work here,” said Ray Byrnes, president and CEO of Contech Medical, Inc., a Providence-based company that employs 110 workers.

Economists and state officials agree that the low-skilled, mass-production jobs will continue to disappear. The future lies in making highly engineered, customized products, often produced in smaller quantities, which requires a work force with more technical skills.

That will require training young workers and retraining older ones, including people who have been laid off. “Investing in your workers provides the greatest return on your investment. I can’t preach that enough,” said Peter Woodberry, dean of business, science and technology at the Community College of Rhode Island.

So far this year, there have been more manufacturing jobs lost — 5,400 — than in any other sector as Rhode Island’s jobless rate climbed to 13 percent in September, with 74,000 people out of work.

Mike Lynch, regional economist for IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting and analysis firm, said his projections for the state show a slow rebound in manufacturing jobs, perhaps 2,000, once the recession bottoms out in 2010. But after 2014, he said, there will be continued erosion, and 10 years from now, there will be about 40,000 manufacturing jobs in the state.

Edinaldo Tebaldi, assistant professor of economics at Bryant University, is not projecting the return of lost manufacturing jobs — “I think they’re gone forever” — although he believes the rate of job loss will slow. Tebaldi also said the manufacturing sector will have about 40,000 jobs.

However, J. Michael Saul, interim executive director of the Rhode Island Economic Development Corporation, pointed out that while employment is down, the total value, or gross domestic product (GDP), of Rhode Island manufacturing rose from $3.9 billion in 2001 to $4.65 billion in 2008.

Leslie Taito, CEO of Rhode Island Manufacturing Extension Services, a nonprofit agency that provides technical and business assistance for manufacturers in the state, said she’s convinced there are still tremendous job possibilities in manufacturing. “We need to hold on to what we have, and then grow it. Yes, it’s tough. But I still think there is potential for growth in industry. Otherwise, I shouldn’t be doing this job.”

Taito said Rhode Island companies that are succeeding are those that have carved out niches where they can serve a focused market. Medical-device manufacturing, she said, is one of the bright spots in the state’s industrial economy.

“We’re doing exceptionally well,” said Byrnes of Contech Medical. Byrnes said the company has found a niche within the medical-device world. Its best-selling products are called dispenser coils, which are used to insert medical devices such as stents and catheters into blood vessels, primarily for cardiac use.

Byrnes said his company considered moving some of its operations to China or Mexico, but found that with effective automation it could remain in Rhode Island and stay competitive. Byrnes said Contech recently expanded the “clean rooms” where it makes products at its plant in a renovated mill building at 99 Hartford Ave. in Providence.

Pilgrim Screw Corp., which started in 1932, has 65 employees, 38 of them in Providence. The company is based in Rhode Island, but also has a facility in Arizona. “What we’ve done to survive is to move up the value chain,” said president Geoff Grove. “Our current market is almost exclusively aerospace and military ... the companies using these fasteners demand the highest quality, plus traceability right back to the raw materials.”

Grove said the company has undergone a slow transition to a high-tech operation since the mid-’80s. “I won’t say that it’s been easy. It took time, it took extra training. But they [Pilgrim employees] rose to the challenge ... the future of manufacturing here will require higher-skilled, higher-educated people.”

Saul said there are encouraging signs for Rhode Island manufacturing, among them a strong emphasis on biotech research by Brown University and the University of Rhode Island, future job growth in the defense sector, and the long-term potential for green-energy jobs.

Tebaldi estimated that about 20,000 Rhode Islanders are employed in high-tech manufacturing, such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices and electronics. Even an “amazing” growth rate of 50 percent over the next few years, he said, would only add 10,000 jobs to the Rhode Island economy, a far cry from the more than 50,000 lost since 1990.

“High-tech jobs, green-manufacturing jobs are very important, and we want them. But it’s not going to be enough to meet employment demand,” he said. Tebaldi said the state will need to look at other areas for job growth, such as leisure and hospitality, health care and trade and transportation.

asmith@projo.com