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It may be time to rethink currencies

09:52 AM EDT on Monday, May 12, 2008

By TIM PARADIS

Associated Press

NEW YORK — With higher prices at the gas pump and the grocery store, consumers might not be looking favorably at the dollar — one of the reasons for the recent run-up in commodities prices. But for investors, bad feelings about the dollar could dissipate if the greenback shows greater strength.

While currency investments are volatile and meant for only a small portion of an average investor’s holdings, they can act as ballast for a portfolio by moving independently of stocks and bonds. With the dollar swooning, some currency investments have lately seemed to be something for only the bravest of investors. But now some investors are wondering whether currencies might be in for another shift.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by a quarter point wouldn’t on its face seem likely to help the anemic dollar. That’s because investors from around the world will be more likely to look for higher yields elsewhere with each rate cut the Fed makes. But the Fed’s move might have been different because some economists have written that the agency will probably sit on its hands in future meetings and leave rates unchanged.

So with U.S. interest rates perhaps near a turning point, investors with currency holdings might want to reevaluate their portfolios to see whether it’s time to tweak any of their positions.

Bruce McCain, head of the investment strategy team at Key Private Bank in Cleveland, noted that the precipitous decline in the dollar could mean it’s due for a rebound. He said short-term speculation has probably muscled the dollar lower than it probably deserves.

McCain also contends that economies outside the United States are showing signs of slowing, which could prompt central banks elsewhere to trim rates in hopes of boosting economic growth.

While a change in the direction of the dollar could occur, investors would still probably have to endure volatility.

But if the U.S. economy shows signs it might be on the mend, the dollar could reclaim some of the ground lost in recent months, said Ryan Caldwell, co-portfolio manager of the Ivy Asset Strategy fund.

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