Jane Tiernan-Reilly, left, a sales associate at JW Graham in Wickford, says business has been exceptional at the start of this holiday season.

The Providence Journal / Gretchen Ertl

WALTHAM, Mass. — The head of the National Retail Federation remains firm in her belief that Americans will indeed buy things to give away during the December holidays.

“We choose to take an optimistic view,” Tracy Mullin said yesterday in a speech during the annual awards luncheon of the Retail Association of Massachusetts. “We believe that the combination of lower gas prices, the conclusion of a long, arduous presidential campaign, and a lot of pent-up demand” will encourage people to shop.

The hope among retailers is that Americans will spend enough to forestall a disastrous holiday shopping season — a period that typically accounts for 20 percent to 35 percent of retailers’ annual income.

Last week, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales dropped 2.8 percent in October — the largest monthly drop since the agency began keeping records in 1992.

A Reuters/University of Michigan survey released the same day found consumer attitudes, even with an upward tick earlier this month, near lows not seen in decades. The survey pegged consumer sentiment this month at 57.9, up from 57.6 last month but not far off the low of 56.4, reached in June.

“How many of you believe this is going to be a record-setting holiday — and not in a good way?” she asked the audience. A good number of the 75 or so attendees raised their hands or voiced their assent.

The retail federation has forecast that retail sales will rise only 2.2 percent this year, which would make it the worst holiday season since 2002. Mullin noted that the federation’s forecast was released before the financial chaos of September.

Now, retailers would do well to see their sales this month and next month meet last year’s revenue for the period, she said.

“Flat is the new up,” said Mullin, a Boston University graduate who has family ties to Salem, Mass.

The president and chief executive officer of the retail federation urged audience members, some of whom were on hand to receive awards for their retailing creativity, to be smart about their businesses — stocking “cool” items, controlling inventory and offering “special goodies” to get people to buy things once they’re inside a store.

There are signs of hope for retailers though, as a Consumer Reports poll released Wednesday shows that more than a quarter of consumers, 26 percent, plan to go shopping the day after Thanksgiving, up 5 percentage points from the number that shopped that day last year.

The day after Thanksgiving has become known as Black Friday in the retail trade, because it is traditionally one of the busiest shopping days of the year and thus the moment when balance sheets go from red to black. Retailers typically hold extended store hours and offer deep discounts on some items to get people spending.

Consumer habits have changed somewhat from the days when Black Friday consistently was the top selling day of the year as people often do the most spending on the weekend before Christmas — and even wait until January to buy items at closeout prices.

But Black Friday is still an “early indicator” of the sales to be rung up in the annual holiday shopping season, Mullin said.

She said she, like retailers across the country, is hopeful that Americans will do more than go window shopping in the days to come.

“I think every retailer is holding their breath,” she said. “We still believe we’ll see consumers shopping and let’s face it, there are a lot of deals out there.”

pgrimald@projo.com