lardaro

Rhode Island remained mired in a deep, unabated recession in July, according to the Current Conditions Index created by University of Rhode Island economics Prof. Leonard Lardaro to measure the strength of the present situation.

“I have now become very worried about Rhode Island’s economy,” Lardaro wrote. “As both the national and global economies slow, it is readily apparent that Rhode Island has no margin for error in dealing with this heightened awareness, as we have now been in a recession for almost a year. The only bright spot is that we will now be comparing to recession levels for the remainder of this year.”

The index rose from its all-time low of zero in June to 17 in July. A value of 50 is neutral. Anything above 50 signifies expansion while anything below that signifies retraction.

The CCI measures the behavior of 12 economic indicators each month and compares them with what they were during the same month a year ago. The changes indicate whether Rhode Island’s economy is growing, contracting or stagnant.

Lardaro said this year is proving to be the worst statistically of any for which CCI values have been calculated. The numbers indicate that Rhode Island has been in a recession for almost a year, he said.

Of the index’s 12 indicators, only two improved in July, and one of them — manufacturing — had such a small rate of increase, it was necessary to add a decimal place to its rate of change to show movement.

The index showed that fallout related to the continuing housing weakness had intensified. The recent sharp drops in July retail sales showed that the tax rebate checks sent out by the federal government were unable to overcome the economic weakness the state has been experiencing.

Along with the slump in retail sales, consumer sentiment declined significantly, the fifth consecutive decrease of 20 percent or more.