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Supermodel, investors shun U.S. dollars for euros

01:00 AM EST on Saturday, November 10, 2007

By Bo Nielsen and Adriana Brasileiro

Bloomberg News

Gisele Bundchen wants to remain the world’s richest model and is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar.

Like billionaire investors Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, the Brazilian supermodel, whom Forbes magazine says earns more than anyone in her industry, is at the top of a growing list of rich people who have concluded that the currency can only depreciate because Americans led by President George W. Bush are living beyond their means.

Even though the dollar lost 34 percent since 2001, the biggest investors and most accurate forecasters say it will weaken further as home sales fall and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The dollar plummeted to its lowest ever last week against the euro, Canadian dollar and Chinese yuan, and the cheapest in 26 years against the British pound.

“We’ve told all of our clients that if you only had one idea, one investment, it would be to buy an investment in a non-dollar currency,” said Gross, the chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, Calif., and manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. “That should be on top of the list,” said Gross, whose firm is a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE.

The dollar fell 0.8 percent last week against the euro and touched $1.4528, the weakest since the euro started trading in 1999. It dropped 2.8 percent to 93.47 Canadian cents and 1.8 percent to $2.09 per British pound. The Fed’s U.S. Trade Weighted Major Currency Index measuring the dollar’s performance versus seven currencies, such as Japan’s, slid to a record low of 72.21.

BNP Paribas chief currency strategist Hans-Guenter Redeker, the most accurate foreign-exchange forecaster last quarter in a Bloomberg survey, said the dollar may drop to $1.50 per euro by year-end.

The median estimate of 42 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg is for the currency to end the year at $1.43. Among those surveyed last week, the forecast ranges from $1.42 to $1.50.

When Bundchen, 27, signed a contract in August to represent Pantene hair products for Cincinnati-based Procter & Gamble Co., she demanded payment in euros, according to Veja, Brazil’s biggest weekly magazine. She’ll also get euros for the deal she reached last October with Dolce & Gabbana SpA in Milan to promote the Italian designer’s new fragrance, The One, Veja reported. Bundchen earned $33 million in the year through June, Forbes reported in July.

“Contracts starting now are more attractive in euros because we don’t know what will happen to the dollar,” Patricia Bundchen, the model’s twin sister and manager in Brazil, said in a telephone interview in September from Sao Paulo.

She declined to discuss details of the arrangements last week, as did Anne Nelson, Bundchen’s agent in New York at IMG Models.

Procter & Gamble’s Sao Paulo-based external relations director for Brazil, Andre Quadra, said he couldn’t give details of the Pantene contract because of a confidentiality agreement.

Analysts in a Bloomberg survey expect the dollar to strengthen in coming months as stronger-than-forecast reports suggest U.S. consumers will keep the economy out of recession. Payrolls grew by 166,000 last month, double the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey.

The dollar will rise to $1.43 per euro this year and $1.35 by the end of next year, according to the median estimate in the survey.

“So far the data has shown the U.S. economy may not be slowing to the extent the majority of the market had expected,” said Omer Esiner, an analyst at currency-trading company Ruesch International Inc. in Washington who expects the U.S. currency to strengthen to as much as $1.38 per euro.

“That could temper policy easing down the road and lend support for the dollar.”

Buffett, whom Forbes in April ranked as the world’s third-richest person behind Bill Gates and Carlos Slim, told reporters in South Korea last month that he is bearish on the U.S. currency.

“We still are negative on the dollar relative to most major currencies, so we bought stocks in companies that earn their money in other currencies,” Buffett said Oct. 25. Buffett, 77, is chairman of Omaha, Neb.-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

The dollar is falling as investors seek better returns outside the United States. Developing Asian nations including China and India will grow 9.8 percent this year, compared with 1.9 percent for the United States, the International Monetary Fund said last month.

China, India and Russia accounted for half the global expansion over the past year, and the euro region will expand 2.5 percent this year, outpacing the United States for the first time since 2001, the Washington-based IMF estimates.

“The world has learned to live with a weak dollar,” said Jay Bryson, a former Fed analyst who is now a global economist in Charlotte, N.C., at Wachovia Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. bank.

“It’s not worried. It doesn’t rely on the U.S. as much as it once did.”

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