Business
Plummeting gas prices notwithstanding, glum overall economy keeps holiday travel down
01:00 AM EST on Thursday, November 27, 2008

Travelers in New York board a bus for Washington yesterday. For the first time since 2002, fewer Americans will take to the roads, rails and air to celebrate Thanksgiving.
AP / Frank Franklin II
If there are several empty seats at the table at today’s Thanksgiving dinner, blame the recession.
Tightened family budgets, and fears that finances will get worse, cut back travel plans for many people this year.
Some college students decided to stay on campus rather than paying for an expensive flight back home for the short four- or five-day recess before heading back to class on Monday. Some families decided not to make a long trip to the relatives’ houses because of the extra expense.
For the first time since 2002, fewer Americans will take to the roads, rails and air to celebrate, according to AAA, the largest U.S. motorist group. About 1.2 percent fewer people expect to travel during the period, and 7.2 percent fewer plan to fly, AAA said.
That’s a reversal from last year, when Thanksgiving travel reached a record even as gasoline prices surged and airfares had their biggest one-month jump. This holiday season, gasoline prices are at their lowest level since February 2005.
It’s telling us just how much the overall picture has deteriorated, said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, citing lower consumer confidence, rising unemployment and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 41-percent drop in the past year.
An expected 41 million people in the United States will travel at least 50 miles from home starting yesterday through Nov. 30, AAA said. Travelers taking buses and trains may increase 5.8 percent.
The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States is $1.91, down 54 percent from a record $4.11 on July 15, according to AAA. A year ago, it was $3.09. The average price in Rhode Island and Massachusetts yesterday was $1.91, according to AAA. The price in Connecticut was $2.03.
Airfares climbed an average of 4 percent in the past 12 months, according to AAA, with Delta Air Lines Inc., the largest U.S. carrier, and its competitors also adding or boosting fees for checking luggage, reserving certain seats and changing reservations. Some carriers are charging for beverages, pillows and blankets.
The increased cost of flying compared with the reduced price of gasoline explains why air travel will decline more this week, Gault said.
Consumers are cutting back on anything they perceive as not being essential, he said. In particular, that means big-ticket items.
Major U.S. airlines also have trimmed capacity about 10 percent to help stem losses from record fuel prices earlier this year.
Travelers would rather stay home than face the many new charges, including increased ticket-change fees and baggage fees, which the airlines are now imposing on them, said Tom Parsons, chief executive officer of Bestfares.com, a discount travel Web site.
The Air Transport Association, the airlines trade group, expects the number of travelers to fall 10 percent, to 24 million, during an extended holiday period of Nov. 21 through Dec. 2. It would be the first drop in seven years.
Fewer planes and fewer travelers may ease crowding in airports and congestion on runways, said David Stempler, president of the Air Travelers Association, a passenger advocacy group based in Potomac, Md.
The planes themselves will be congested, but everything else should run more smoothly, he said.
The stress on airports should be less, Stempler said. Hopefully, there will be fewer problems with baggage getting lost and missed connections.
The Air Transport Association expects an average 90 percent of seats to be filled on Nov. 26, Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, the three busiest days of the Thanksgiving holiday period. Some flights will be 100 percent full, the association said.
“At the end of the day, we all just have to pray for good weather,” said Elizabeth Merida, an ATA spokeswoman. “We’re all just at the mercy of Mother Nature.”
Some carriers, including AMR Corp.’s American Airlines and US Airways Group Inc., say delays and lost bags may decrease because of fewer flights and less checked luggage. Those airlines reported improved on-time performances in recent months.
Major airlines have whittled down the 14-day-advance period for holiday discount fares to 3 days, or none at all, Parsons said. He said fares may fall further as Thanksgiving nears, so they can gobble up as many last-minute travelers as possible.
Rachel Horwood, 42, said she agreed to take a vacation with friends over the holiday weekend if they found a good price. Horwood, a Washington-based magazine researcher, and two companions will fly to Puerto Rico for a five-day vacation at a beachfront hotel.
“I just thought if I can do a trip for under $1,000, it was going to be a deal,” Horwood said.
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