“The 800-pound gorilla is the economy,” says Arthur N. Votolato, the federal bankruptcy judge in Rhode Island.

PROVIDENCE JOURNAL FILE / Kathy Borchers

The numbers are stark:

In the first three months of last year, bankruptcy filings in federal court in Rhode Island totaled 576.

This year, they climbed to 910.

That’s an increase of almost 60 percent.

It’s also a strong indicator that Rhode Island’s economy is in recession — and has been for some time.

“You’re usually looking at two to three quarters behind recessionary trends,” said Jack Williams, of the American Bankruptcy Institute. That means a spike in bankruptcy filings generally follows the start of a recession by six to nine months.

John Boyajian, a leading bankruptcy lawyer in Rhode Island, agreed with that estimate. He said banks generally wait for three months of missed mortgage payments before deciding to foreclose on a house, and that’s followed by another two months of paperwork before the foreclosure proceeding pushes a homeowner into bankruptcy court.

Any number of causes can push someone into bankruptcy, including gambling debts, catastrophic illness or paying for a funeral.

But Arthur N. Votolato, the federal bankruptcy judge in Rhode Island, said his court has been seeing bigger numbers recently from other causes that are more sensitive to a recession: job losses, as well as homeowners who can no longer afford their mortgages after introductory interest rates expire and monthly payments jump.

“The 800-pound gorilla is the economy,” said Votolato. “The general big one seems to be the economy, but it’s also flavored with other things.”

The finances of average Americans are more sensitive to economic swings today than perhaps ever before, as people become more reliant on credit for everyday transactions, Williams said. “So much of our income is dedicated just to service debt that we have no opportunity to save.”

And credit-card debt can be particularly crippling, especially for those who miss payments and are charged default interest rates, according to Boyajian. “How are you going to beat 24 to 30 percent a year?”

Americans used to stockpile savings so they could weather a financial storm, he said, but “heck, now we can’t even weather a hiccup.”

Today’s storm is seen to be the result of risky lending in the housing market and a subsequent general tightening of credit.

Lenders enticed borrowers with low “teaser” rates on adjustable-rate mortgages that would balloon to hefty monthly payments after the introductory rate expired. Many borrowers expected to be able to refinance to a lower fixed rate before the adjustable rate kicked in.

But, as the economy slowed, credit tightened. Those borrowers found themselves unable to refinance and unable to afford the new monthly rates on their houses. As waves of foreclosures swept the industry, credit tightened further, trapping more borrowers in a credit death spiral.

“I just see more people in trouble,” Boyajian said. “They’re falling behind on their houses because the mortgage payment goes up. People are all of a sudden understanding they can’t afford their homes anymore.”

In one of the pitfalls of a sagging housing market, many of the borrowers find they also can’t afford to sell. In a condition the industry calls “upside-down,” the borrower owes more on the mortgage than the current market value of the house. Even if the house is sold, the borrower would still owe thousands of dollars.

“All these homes that a couple of years ago everyone thought had equity, that doesn’t exist anymore,” said Boyajian.

Votolato confirmed that, saying his court is seeing a lot more cases of upside-down mortgages this year.

Boyajian said the borrowers who come to him are paying alarming amounts for their mortgages and related expenses, such as taxes and insurance. The rule of thumb used to be that about a quarter of a person’s monthly income should go to the mortgage and other expenses. But he said a typical debtor who comes to him pays more than half, sometimes considerably more.

Comparing this year’s bankruptcy filings with those during previous recessionary periods in Rhode Island is difficult because of a change in bankruptcy law that took effect in October 2005. At the urging of credit-card companies, the law was altered to make it more difficult for a debtor to be relieved of debt. Instead, the new law requires many debtors to make payments on that debt.

As a result, bankruptcy filings soared leading up to October 2005, as debtors raced to take advantage of the old law. Then filings plummeted. People who, under normal circumstances, might have waited to file in November or December that year or in the first part of 2006, had already done so.

As an example, Rhode Island saw 1,063 bankruptcy filings in the first three months of 2005, but only 290 in the same period of 2006, just after the new law took effect.

Experts say the system has rebounded from the surge and plummet associated with the change in the law.

“I don’t think we’re dealing with the 2005 overhang anymore,” Williams said.

The real question is where the new “normal” will be. For each of the eight years leading up to the law change, Rhode Island saw more than 1,000 filings in the first three months of each year.

Predicted Williams: “We’re moving back toward pre-2005 numbers.”

And he cautioned that we should expect those numbers to rise.

pparker@projo.com